Why are economic forecasters so wrong, so often? - By Tim Harford - Slate Magazine

News Type: Opinion — Seeded on Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:44 PM EDT

Article Source: Slate

When people discover that I am an economist, they rarely ask me for my views on subjects that economists know a bit about%u2014such as how to respond to climate change or pay less at a supermarket. Instead, they ask me what will happen to the economy.

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{"commentId":2559562,"authorDomain":"jaljones"}

JalJones

I have always wondered why we hear that economists were "surprised" by some economic event. It's almost like their weathermen. Good Seed.

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1 vote

#1 - Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:33 PM EDT

{"commentId":2560698,"authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}

JoulesBeef

lol well they are its a chaotic system.. the longer the period of prediction the less exact you should be. "weather" really cant be predicted much past 5 days.. after that you kinda just guessing, but that's not to say you cant make longer term predictions that arent as exact.
saying the us economy will grow by only 1% percent this year is a bit risky of a prediction, and is like the weather man making predictions a year in advance... saying that at the end of the year the us will still have one of the worlds largest economies.. is more like climate. these guys tedn to be fairly good in the short term.. predicting if the fed will increase rates or not..etc but everyone wants to know whats going to happen in the long term so they can have time to place their bets,,
just like I would love to know if next week is going to be rainy so I can go easy on the water.
aint going to happen EVER. unless we actively control the weather, because it is fundemental to the math.

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1 vote

#1.1 - Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:23 PM EDT

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Why are economic forecasters so wrong, so often? - By Tim Harford - Slate Magazine

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